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Welcome to the Week 4 NFL CheatChart. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional match ups table and highlight potentially exploitable Week 4 fantasy football matchups. Use this for fantasy football start/sit decisions, to make DFS lineups, and place the best player prop bets.
If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the NFL CheatChart methodology.
Identify the Week 4 Fantasy Football Matchup Chart
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to YOUR PLAYER’S POSITION column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Week 4 NFL CheatChart Positional matchup advantages and disadvantages for QB RB WR and TE| Week 4 Matchup | CheatChart Takeaway |
|---|---|
| QB best matchup | Trevor Lawrence vs. CIN (+39%) |
| TE best matchup | Sam LaPorta vs. CAR (+80%) |
| QB toughest matchup | Lamar Jackson vs. TEN (-34%) |
| WR upside streamer | Mack Hollins vs. BUF |
| RB deep stash | Sione Vaki vs. CAR |
| IDP best matchup | Eagles DBs vs. LAR (+32%) |
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Best Week 4 Fantasy Football Matchups to Target
The Long Arm of the T-Law
Trevor Lawrence faces against the Bengals this week, and bookmakers expect it to be a good one. The game currently has the week’s highest over/under at 51.5, with just a 2.5 point spread. His positional match up is 39% which is second highest at QB this week. Lawrence is the best ceiling play of the week outside of Josh Allen who lives in the top spot because he’s Josh Allen.
Return of the Mack Hollins
If Mack Hollins isn’t on your radar, he should be. While Drake Maye has seemed like a disappointment so far this year, Mack Hollins has quietly been putting up decent numbers. The 33-year-old receiver has caught 12 of his 16 targets so far this year. In Week 4 he gets Buffalo who has been a solidly good match up for wide receivers. The game’s over/under is a healthy 48.5 points, but the Patriots are expected to trail which means more passing. If you’re hurting for wide receiver depth, don’t overlook him.
Make a Stash
There aren’t any amazing match ups to highlight this week are running back so I’ll dive a little deeper, and mention Sione Vaki who is worth stashing if you have bench space. Vaki hasn’t done anything this year to warrant being started in even deep leagues, but he’s a good handcuff option and he’s been seeing a handful of touches. If he makes a big play in what’s expect to be a high scoring, close game, the he may end up an in-demand waiver pick next week. Beat the rush and stash him now if you have space.
Any LaPorta in a Storm
So far this year, tight end has been pretty muddled, even at the top. If you drafted Sam LaPorta, chances are you took him in the seventh round or so, and he hasn’t quite paid off that ADP yet. I expect that to change this week as he gets one of the best match ups on paper. With a 50.5 over/under and only a 3.5 spread, this game could easily turn into a shootout. Combine that with the Panthers allowing a whopping 80% positional match up so far, and you have the ingredients for a fantastic game.
Toughest Week 4 Fantasy Football Matchups to Avoid
Leary of Lamar
Lamar Jackson is an every week must-start, but you should temper expectations this week. He has the worst QB match up of the week with -34%. They have a bad over/under which means it’s likely to be a low-scoring affair, and the Ravens are expected to blow out the Titans meaning much of game the Ravens will just be rushing to burn time. Of course you’re starting Lamar Jackson, so what can you do with this information?
Plan around it. Look at your match up this week and see how you stack up to your opponent. If you’re projected to lose, then you may want to compensate for Lamar’s potentially low week by making higher risk, higher reward starts elsewhere. Instead of a safe option at flex throw the dart at a boom-or-bust type in a potential shootout game instead.
Passing game to be M.I.A. in MIN
In Week 3 we saw the return of Kyler Murray but we weren’t able to see his chemistry with Justin Jefferson who exited early with an ankle sprain. Jordan Addison stepped up and was serviceable, catching 5 of his 9 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson is considered day-to-day with his ankle and that would typically mean that Addison should expect a good boost to his production. Unfortunately they go up against Miami in Week 4. Miami has given up 29% fewer points to opposing wide receivers this year, largely because they’ve been unable to stay competitive in games. While Addison may get some looks his way early chances are the Vikings will be running out the clock for the majority of this game.
Running Back Blood Bath
On the flip side of this game is the Miami Dolphins run game. With De’Von Achane out for the season, both Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright became waiver wire priorities. I urge you, if you can, to resist putting them into your lineup this week. The reason is simple, not only do they have a terrible offensive line and are expected to trail, but they’re not facing an ordinary defense.
Brian Flores, the Vikings Defensive Coordinator, is a madman. The Vikings are blitzing at a 72.9% rate so far this year, most in the league. Second highest is the Commanders at 46.6%. They’ve already accumulated 14 sacks and 18 tackles for losses this year. The only hope for this Miami backfield is that they get off a couple big runs via screen passes, but that’s a risky bet. Avoid starting either option if you can for this week, brighter days are ahead.
Week 4 IDP Fantasy Football Matchups
Week 4 IDP Targets | Streamers, Sleepers, and Stashes
Cooper DeJean will be rostered in all IDP leagues but don’t overlook his teammates this week in what should be a great match up. The Eagles DBs get the Rams, who are the league top match up at 32%. Quinyon Mitchell is coming off a huge week and could repeat, and either Marcus Epps or Andrew Mukuba are viable dart throws.
Another great streaming option for DBs is Atlanta. C.J. Henderson was thrust into a starting role and has been doing very well with it. He’s been very productive over the last two weeks, and played in 91% and 95% of snaps respectively. Xavier Watts is likely owned in your league but it’s worth checking as he’s in a similar spot to Henderson.
For additional IDP waiver adds I’d recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s Week 4 IDP Waiver Wire.
NFL Week 4 Matchup Trends | Run Funnels, Pass Funnels & IDP
Notable Rush Funnel Teams: While it’s still too early to put hard labels on any teams, it’s worth noting the emerging trends. The Bears, Broncos, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, Jets, are looking to be teams that give up points to the run.
Pass Funnel Teams: The Cardinals, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Texans, and Commanders are all giving up points through the air more than on the ground.
IDP Targets: The Rams are top target for DBs, but the Bears, Lions, Jets, and Saints are all plus match ups. The Buccaneers are emerging as the best target for LBs, with only the Bills being close. Target teams for DL will be the Vikings, Raiders, and Browns.
Final Word | Week 4 NFL CheatChart
Thank you for joining me for another year of the CheatChart, and if you’re new then welcome! I hope you enjoy and if you have any questions feel free to send them my way. With it only being Week 4 our sample size is still smaller than ideal, but is good enough to give us a solid signal. We should hit our peak accuracy at Week 6 and maintain that through the year. Best of luck in Week 4!
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Don’t miss the Week 4 Start/Sit Rankings by Steven Pintado!
