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Welcome to the Week 10 NFL CheatChart. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional match ups table and highlight potentially exploitable Week 10 fantasy football match ups. Use this for fantasy football start/sit decisions, to make DFS lineups, and place the best player prop bets.
If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the NFL CheatChart methodology.
Identify the Week 10 Fantasy Football Matchup Chart
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between Parker Washington (WR-JAX) and Chase Brown (RB-CIN). For Washington, find JAX in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 29%. That’s an extremely positive matchup. Next, for Brown, find CIN in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -19%, which is a moderately negative matchup. Given both players are averaging around 12-12.5 points per game, I would lean Washington.
Best Week 10 Fantasy Football Match ups to Target
Lock It Down
If you’re desperate for a QB going into Week 10, you could do worse than Drew Lock. Lock actually had a very similar situation to this week, where he had a great positional matchup but the other peripherals were less exciting. A low over/under isn’t great, and the Seahawks are expected to lead by quite a bit so they may end up running often. On the flip side there’s a chance we see a good premier from opposing QB Fernando Mendoza which could help keep things competitive. Consider Lock a Risky QB2 this week.
As a bonus, there are rumors going around that Lock is expected to be signed as a starter somewhere in the NFL next year. While you probably won’t get more than a season out of him, if you’re in a 2 quarterback league it’s worth sending a deep pick or other small assert to the manager who current has him as you may be able to flip him next year for a small profit.
Back In Black
I don’t need to tell anybody to start Christian McCaffrey, but if you are in need of a flex play look to the 49ers RB2, consider Kaelon Black. Black has taken a big step forward in his last two games, getting 12 carries and 3 targets in Week 7 and then 11 carries in Week 9. The over/under on their game is an amazing 55.5 points, so the chances of him getting in the end zone are better than usual. He’s a deeper play but should see the field enough to be fantasy relevant.
San Francisco Treat
I’m going to double down on this game and also recommend the 49ers wide receivers. Deebo Samuel is still working his way back from injury and questionable to play this Sunday. On top of that the 49ers just completed a trade with the Colts for Keenan Allen. While he’s not at his peak anymore and just arriving to the team this week, he can be started in deeper formats, as can Jordan Watkins. Watkins has been a low volume player but again, we’re digging deep this week and the match up and situation are both phenomenal.
Muuuuth
At tight end this week, I’m highlighting Pat Freiermuth of the Steelers. He has a moderately positive positional match up but has been seeing great usage (for a deeper tight end). His receptions last week were poor at only 2, but he made up for it with a rushing touchdown. The Steelers have lined him up out of the backfield a handful of times this year, and that is enough for bye week TEs.
Toughest Week 10 Fantasy Football Match ups to Avoid
Colts Down Bad
While Daniel Jones has been usable a few times in recent weeks, this week is probably the worst case scenario for him. He has a rough -18% match up but more importantly, he just lost his top two receivers, Josh Downs and Keenan Allen to trades. He now has 7th round rookie Deion Burks, Ashton Dulin, and LaQuon Treadwell for his receiving corps. If there’s any silver lining here, it will be for Tyler Warren‘s workload.
Low Charging Battery
If you’re looking for an excuse to sit the Chargers running backs, here it is. The Chargers backfield are staring down a -18% positional match up which is somewhat rough, but combining that with the very low 38.5 point over/under and the implied game script which will have the Chargers trailing, and all three of Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal, and newly acquired Keaton Mitchell could be duds in Week 10.
Backup Plan
On the other side of the field in that game, Mark Andrews can also be sat considering his -29% match up. He might see improved quarterback play with Jacoby Brissett who recently was feeding Trey McBride consistently but it’s hard to trust him Andrews consider this game will be Brisset’s first in Baltimore.
Week 10 IDP Fantasy Football Match ups
For additional IDP waiver adds I’d recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s Week 10 IDP Waiver Wire.
NFL Week 10 Matchup Trends | Run Funnels, Pass Funnels & IDP
Notable Rush Funnel Teams:The Falcons, Texans, Saints, and Commanders are looking to be teams that give up more points to the run than they do to the pass.
Pass Funnel Teams: The Panthers, Chargers, Patriots, Steelers, and Titans are are all giving up points through the air more than on the ground.
IDP Targets: The Chargers look to be a good target for streaming DBs. Be wary about QB change ups, as there have been many in recent weeks. The Colts and Cowboys are still good targets for DBs as well. The Giants and Chargers are the best targets for opposing LBs by a good margin, and there are a slew of options at DL.
Final Word | Week 10 NFL CheatChart
Thank you for joining me for another week with the CheatChart. I will continue to focus on highlighting deeper players as we make our way through the bye week doldrums. Looking ahead though, I will start including previews of playoff match ups as well. If anyone has any questions I’m happy to hear them
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Don’t miss the Week 10 Start/Sit Rankings by Steven Pintado!
