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Welcome to the Week 9 NFL CheatChart. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional match ups table and highlight potentially exploitable Week 9 fantasy football match ups. Use this for fantasy football start/sit decisions, to make DFS lineups, and place the best player prop bets.
If you’re curious about the process you can find a full introduction HERE where I lay out the NFL CheatChart methodology.
Identify the Week 9 Fantasy Football Matchup CheatChart
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they typically score.
Example: Let’s say you’re deciding between Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) and Cam Skattebo (RB-NYG). For Jefferson, find MIN in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 17%. That’s a solidly positive matchup. Next, for Skattebo, find NYG in the first column. Follow that row over to the RB column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is -6%, which is a very mildly negative matchup. Given both players are averaging 11.7 points per game, I would lean Jefferson.
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Best Week 9 Fantasy Football Matchups to Target
Catch Up QB
Malik Willis has the best QB matchup on the board at 35%, and Miami should be trailing Detroit in a moderately high 50.5 over/under. They’re predicted to trail by a full touchdown so chances are there will be plenty of pass attempts to go around.
Running Back Redemption?
Quinshon Judkins gets a 32% matchup against the Saints, the second-best running back number on the chart. Last week was a dud (6.9 points), but he averages 14 points over his last six and the Browns are only 3-point underdogs. The 42.5 total is low, but the matchup is hard to ignore.
San Fran WR Shakeup
The 49ers have a 21% receiver matchup against the Raiders, and they are 10-point favorites in a game tied for the highest over/under on the week, but this is probably the most tumultuous wide receiver corps in the league. Since Deebo Samuel went to IR, none have emerged as even usable. Jordan Watkins, Brandon Cooks, and Jacob Cowing all have less than a 15% target share over the last six weeks. They’re worth stashing if they’re on waivers, but don’t hold your breath.
Miami Breakout
Greg Dulcich (46%) is in a great spot this week for all the reasons mentioned above about Malik Willis and more. He’s averaged a 21% target share over the last six weeks which is top eight in the league.
Toughest Week 9 Fantasy Football Match ups to Avoid
A QB without Competition
C.J. Stroud (-30%) has been doing remarkably well this year, for fantasy and otherwise. In Week 9 however he goes up against the Chargers who have been completely flaccid on offense. Teams have been getting an early lead and spending much of the game running out the clock, so unless Stroud takes a few runs himself, his ceiling will be limited.
Bear Down But Not Out
Tampa Bay has been terrible for fantasy. Every offensive position is negative against the Buccaneers, but for running backs it’s the worst in the league. D’Andre Swift (-27%), is a must-start RB at this point but Kyle Monongai is expected back this week. Given the situation and the fact that he’s coming off injuries, Monongai should stay on your bench.
Cowboy Troubles
The Cowboys are in one of the week’s highest totals, but the receivers may not have much work. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are both at -31%, Lamb is still a must-start, just with a lower floor this week, but consider Pickens a riskier flex option.
Small Outlook off a Big Week
While Dalton Kincaid (-49%) is coming off of a huge week, temper expectations as he’s up against the rightfully infamous Vikings Defense. Avoid if you can, his chances of landing in the top 12 this week are slim.
Week 9 IDP Fantasy Football Matchups
For additional IDP waiver adds I’d recommend checking out Jon Glosser’s Week 9 IDP Waiver Wire.
NFL Week 9 Matchup Trends | Run Funnels, Pass Funnels & IDP
Notable Rush Funnel Teams: The Falcons, Saints, Texans, and Colts are the most prevalent rush funnel teams going into Week 9.
Pass Funnel Teams: The Lions, Bengals, Chiefs, and Ravens are the largest pass funnel teams at present.
IDP Targets: The Rams are top target for DBs, but the Bears, Lions, Jets, and Saints are all plus match ups. The Buccaneers are emerging as the best target for LBs, with only the Bills being close. Target teams for DL will be the Vikings, Raiders, and Browns.
Final Word | Week 9 NFL CheatChart
Thank you for joining me for for another week with the CheatChart. We are now halfway through the season and going strong. We still have several fantasy-heavy BYE weeks ahead of us and as such I will try to point out players in deeper flex positions. Typical over/unders have a strong correlation when it comes to deeper flex tier players far exceeding their expectations. So don’t be surprised if I recommend a good matchup with a great over/under instead of a great matchup with a mediocre over/under.
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Don’t miss the Week 9 Start/Sit Rankings by Steven Pintado!
