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Dynasty

Players on the Move – 10/7/22

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-SF 12-team league and each starter’s back up for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the percentage change in value for each player. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Breece Hall

Hall came into the season as the sixth-ranked running back after going 1.01 in virtually all rookie drafts. After Javonte Williams’ injury and solid play, he has moved to fifth. Across all positions, he has moved up from 13th to 10th. His value took a hit when the Jets started Michael Carter ahead of him early in the season. However, he has worked his way into lead-back duties with a career-high 66% of the snaps in Week 4. This is up from 45% and 27% in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively.

Through Week 4, he is the 17th-ranked running back on the season in PPR formats. He is currently valued way above his fantasy rookie draft capital. As such, it may be a stretch to target him as any sort of value. If you are not competing, it may be a great time to pivot to a slightly higher PFF-rated Javonte (plus). Javonte’s value went from about half a first-round rookie pick above Hall to half a round below him.

Garrett Wilson

Keeping with the Jets and the rookie theme, Garrett Wilson’s value continues to rise. Wilson entered the season as the 22nd-ranked wide receiver after going early in many rookie drafts. With an Elite Flacco-led passing game, he has moved up to 16th. Across all positions, he has moved up from the 48th to the 29th-ranked player. He has worked his way into garnering more snaps rising steadily from 49% in week 1 to 77% in Week 4.

Through Week 4, he is the 20th-ranked wide receiver on the season in PPR formats. Wilson has seen 39 targets compared to Elijah Moore’s 25 while seeing less of the field than the second-year player. It looks like the Elijah Moore breakout season many had expected has more likely moved to Wilson. There is still uncertainty about how the offense will look moving forward, with Zach Wilson playing in only his second game this season. Garrett Wilson is currently valued right about his fantasy rookie draft capital. As such, he may be worth an add if you believe his upside is available in this new-look offense. If you are not sold on the player, you may be able to look at Mike Evans or Diontae Johnson plus.

Chris Olave

Finally, we have Chris Olave to complete this set of rookies on the rise. Olave entered the season as the 28th-ranked wide receiver after going mid to late in many rookie drafts. Even with shaky quarterback play from Winston and Dalton, he has moved up to 19th. Across all positions, he has moved up from the 57th to the 40th-ranked player. Unlike some of his peers, Olave started and has maintained about a 75% snap share from the jump. The saints have no qualms about airing it up to the speedy receiver.

Through Week 4, he is the 17th-ranked wide receiver on the season in PPR formats. On a game-adjusted basis, Olave has seen 36 targets, more than any other Saints wide receiver, including Michael Thomas. With Winston out in Week 4 and potentially missing Week 5, these numbers are pretty solid for a rookie lacking consistency at quarterback. He is currently valued slightly under his fantasy rookie draft capital. As such, he may be worth an add relative to the others on this list. Leading all rookies in yards and second only to Wilson in targets, Olave may be the bargain of the batch.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Javonte Williams

Javonte’s fall in value is a classic overreaction by the market and a clear buying opportunity. If we look at similar players like Akers, Dobbins, or Etienne, we see their value roughly get cut in half. By the following preseason, their value had fully rebounded. While some of these are poor examples due to their subsequent performance, it still illustrates the ability to buy low and sell high to lock in a profit.

In the case of Javonte, I believe this injury will not impact his future performance. Additionally, on an age-adjusted basis, he will return at an age similar to the age Najee came into the league. With all of this taken into account, this seems like a high-upside play and a reason you want to maintain draft capital even when competing. With Melvin Gordon aging or fumbling out of more snaps, Javonte may enter next year in full takeover mode on an anemic offense that might rely on check-downs, as Najee saw in his first year.

Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson is having a rough start to 2022. He progressed in his first three seasons, moving from 41st at wide receiver to 21st to 8th in PPR formats. Diontae finds himself currently ranked 41st after four weeks. He saw 33 targets in his first three games and is tied for 12th this season. However, in Week 4, Pittsburgh moved from Trubisky to Pickett, who combined for as many interceptions as Diontae targets at 4.

With Diontae yet to score a touchdown, his floor of 10 targets a game, excluding Week 4, indicates there is still upside remaining, even with poor quarterback play. I think there is value at the price of a late 1st round rookie pick. I may hold off as his value will likely continue to fall as Pickett adjusts to NFL speed. He seems to have found himself with the likes of Terry McLaurin and D.J. Moore, struggling for some at least average quarterback play to unlock their value.

David Montgomery

Similarly, Montgomery is having a very rough start to 2022 as well. He maintained solid performances in each of his first three seasons, ranging from 24th at running back in his rookie season to 4th in his second in PPR formats. He finds himself currently ranked a dismal 41st after four weeks, mainly due to weather in the Week 1 monsoon and injury early in Week 3. It is possible his owners may be panicking seeing that ranking while Khalil Herbert goes off in his absence.

However, if we put this back into perspective and he can return from injury unscathed, his value should return. Montgomery has yet to score a touchdown but did see 122 yards on the ground averaging over 8 yards a carry in the only clear-skied and healthy game he can be judged on. At a price of about two 2nd round rookie picks, he is a steal. The only concern would be a significant timeshare with Herbert. I would move quickly as he may play this week, having gone limited at Thursday’s practice.

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