Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 9:30 am @Frankfurt Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (IND -2.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two teams faced off was in the 2022 season. The Patriots would win big at home 26-3 over the Colts. The Colts are coming off a nice win over the Panthers. The Patriots couldn’t get it done against the Commanders. We have the second Germany game of the season! Last week, it wasn’t very high scoring with a 21-14 game. I could see these teams doing worse than that on the scoreboard. The Colts need to take advantage of the Patriot’s weak defense that hasn’t shown up this year. Establishing a better run game than they showed us last week would be important. The offense didn’t step up in the passing game for the Patriots. The run game did, and they get a good matchup vs. a bad Colts run defense. I don’t expect this game to be high-scoring at all.
Gardner Minshew has been mediocre as the Colts starting quarterback this season. He has just two games over 16 fantasy points as the starter. He seems to play better at home rather than on the road. In two home games, he has over 500 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. He has 683 passing yards in three road starts and three passing touchdowns. Minshew will be playing at a neutral site in Germany, but it’s still a road game for the Colts. Quarterbacks have beaten down the Patriots secondary in the last three weeks. They have allowed quarterbacks to pass over 260 yards in the previous three games. They have also given up six passing touchdowns in that span. This seems like a game that Minshew will end up throwing for a lot of attempts. Minshew should be a mid-range QB2 with some upside in week ten.
Mac Jones failed to do well in a good situation, finishing with 13 fantasy points in week nine. Jones has over 17 fantasy points in only two games this year. The Colts have been better against the fantasy quarterbacks during the last four weeks. They have allowed just one passer over 200 yards and five touchdowns in five games. Jones doesn’t have the weapons to produce great games. Jones is likely, at best, a low-end QB2 since there are many other awful quarterbacks in the league. He is a risky play, even in superflex leagues.
The Colts backfield had a down week in terms of rushing as Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss finished under 4.0 YPC. It was clear that Taylor had the lead role back as he had 74% of the offensive snaps compared to the 21% that Moss played. Jonathan Taylor scored over ten fantasy points in the last three weeks. The Patriots are ranked in the bottom ten vs. fantasy running backs this year. They have allowed many touchdowns, especially in back-to-back games. While they don’t allow much big yardage, opposing running backs can average between 55 and 65 yards per game. They also allow some passing value, with five-plus receptions in four of the last five games.
Taylor should lead the backfield in touches in this game. He has seen 12-plus carries in the last three games. Minshew’s ability to throw the running backs prop up his value. Taylor should be able to finish as an RB 1 in week ten. Part of Taylor’s success will come if the Colts continue to give Zach Moss less time to work in the offense. Moss isn’t being used on passing downs, so we must rely on his rushing output. If Moss continues to see less than ten carries, he can be anything more than a high-end RB4, as he would need to see a touchdown or receptions to be valuable.
For the Patriots backfield, we saw Rhamondre Stevenson have his best game of the season. He ran for a season-high in yardage and had over 20 fantasy points. For the Colts run defense, they have been a good matchup for many backfields this year. They have allowed at least 50 rushing yards in four straight games. The Colts have given up nine rushing touchdowns in the last six games. Stevenson’s best games this year are when he gets his value in the passing game. The Colts have given up at least six receptions to backfields in the last two games. Stevenson, as a mid-range RB2 in week ten, makes sense. Zeke Elliott has seen some decent touches this season but has only one game over ten fantasy points this year. He is an RB4 who will need a touchdown or significant targets to be fantasy-relevant in week ten.
The Colts’ pass catchers have a decent matchup against the Patriots’ secondary. The Patriots have allowed six receivers over 50 yards in the last three weeks. They also gave up five receiving touchdowns in those three previous games. Michael Pittman Jr. has been playing very well this season, with seven of nine games over 50 yards. Pittman is the clear WR1 on this team, with double-digit targets in three of the last four games. Pittman should be able to produce a strong game against these Patriots. He is a low-end WR1 in week ten.
Rookie Josh Downs isn’t practicing this week and will likely miss week ten. Downs was averaging six-plus targets in most games with Gardner Minshew this season. If Downs were to play, he would only be a WR4, as he could be limited. If he were to miss this game, I’m not convinced another receiver would step up. I could see the running backs getting more targets than Alec Pierce or Isaiah McKenzie. Pierce has disappointed, as the deep ball hasn’t often been in the cards for this offense. I still would keep Pierce outside the top 60. If anything, McKenzie may be closer to the top 60. For the tight end position, the Patriots are ranked in the top ten against the position. No tight end stands out for the Colts this year. Kylen Granson is ranked outside the top 24 tight ends.
For the Patriots pass catchers, they have another terrific matchup in week ten. The Colts secondary allows the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed five 100-yard receivers this season. In the first two weeks, they allowed four receiving touchdowns. They have been better, with four touchdowns in the last seven games. The Patriots are already shorthanded at receiver with injuries to the position. Demario Douglas was limited this week at practice but has had 50 yards in back-to-back games. He was supposed to go off last week, but he has another solid matchup to do it again. I’m not expecting the world, but he could be a possible flex option, at least a borderline WR3. Then there is JuJu Smith-Shuster, who had a season-high 58 yards in week nine. He wasn’t even playing much in the early portion of that game but managed to get his numbers in the later part of the game. He is a WR5, as I don’t trust his role in the offense.
For the tight end position, the Colts rank in the bottom ten. They have allowed 50 yards in two of the last three games. While they only have given up one touchdown, they allow the tight end position to see good yardage. Hunter Henry had a nice fantasy day last week with his touchdown grab. He saw over three targets for the first time since week four of the season. I don’t trust that Henry will do it again. He is a mid-range TE2 in these match-ups since he is inconsistent and splits time with Mike Gesicki.
Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm Paycor Stadium
- Weather – Partly Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (CIN -6.5) & Over/Under 56.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time that the Texans and Bengals played was in 2020. The Bengals would win in a shootout on the road 37-31 over the Texans. The Texans are coming off a shootout win of their own over the Bucs. The Bengals are red hot right now after taking down the Bills on SNF. The Texans need to continue passing the ball with CJ Stroud, as they find success when they do that. The Bengals are decent, but the Texans passing game must be fully displayed. The Bengals need to take advantage of the Texans’ weaknesses on defense. They need to continue to run the ball and use their tight ends to their advantage, just like we saw in week nine. This could be one of those sneaky high-scoring games of week ten.
CJ Stroud is coming off one of the best performances ever for a rookie quarterback. The Texans needed to return to throwing the football and stop trying to establish a poor run game. Let’s be honest. Stroud isn’t going to do that every week, but if he can get back to the 20 to 24-point range, that would be ideal. The Bengals aren’t that easy of a matchup for Stroud. They have allowed just two quarterbacks over one passing touchdown this year. They have allowed three straight games with over 250 passing yards, with two being over 300. The Bengals give up a rushing floor to quarterbacks with 40 yards in four of eight games. Unfortunately, Stroud isn’t much of a runner, but his passing can be on point. I do expect this game to be high-scoring for both sides. Stroud should be a QB1 in week ten.
Joe Burrow is back, as he has back-to-back games with 25 plus fantasy points against two playoff teams. Burrow has over 600 passing yards and five passing touchdowns with zero turnovers. Burrow looks healthy and is playing at a high level. The Texans aren’t an easy matchup for Burrow, as they allowed their first multi-passing touchdown game of the season in week nine. They have allowed over 250 passing yards in three of the last four games. They haven’t played quarterback to Burrow level or the Bengals offense. I think Burrow should be fine in a matchup that I expect to be high-scoring. Burrow is a QB1 in week ten.
For the Texans backfield, Dameon Pierce will miss another game in Week 10. That would be Devin Singletary back in the starting role against the Bengals. Singletary didn’t do well last week, but he did play the Bucs’ elite run defense. The Bengals are still not a layup matchup for this backfield. They have allowed just two running backs over 65 rushing yards. They have allowed rushing touchdowns in five of the eight games this year. Singletary has double-digit carries in three straight games but needs to be more effective. Singletary should be a nice RB3/flex option and be able to get you around ten fantasy points. Mike Boone played all the third-down snaps last week, but his production was just one carry. He is outside the top 50 running backs.
For the Bengals backfield, Joe Mixon has stepped up after their bye week with two games over 15 fantasy points. He has scored in back-to-back games, which is part of the recent success. Mixon is being used like a workhorse running back, as he has been playing over 70% of the offensive snaps. The Texan’s run game was going strong the last month until Rachaad White came in and had an RB1 week. They have allowed five opposing running backs over 60 yards this season. In the first three weeks, they gave up five rushing touchdowns. Since week four, they had allowed two rushing touchdowns. Mixon continues to see the bulk of the offense and has no backup taking away any touches. Mixon is a low-end RB 1 in week ten.
The Texans pass catchers’ matchup with the Bengals is not that bad. In the last three weeks, they have allowed four receivers over 65 yards this season. For the season, only four receivers have produced over 70 yards. They have allowed only one receiving touchdown in the last three weeks. As I mentioned, I expect this game to be a shootout. Nico Collins has missed practice all week with a calf injury and is out on Sunday. Bob Woods practiced in full on Friday, which makes him likely to play on Sunday. Woods wasn’t doing all that much before his injury. I’d leave him just outside the top 60 receivers. Noah Brown has been producing since his return from his injury. It’s hard not to consider Brown with Collins out in week ten. In a matchup that could be high-scoring, Brown sits as a WR4.
Tank Dell is ready to ball out in week ten without Collins on the field. Dell was coming off 114 yards and two touchdowns. Dell should see close to eight plus targets in week ten and finish at least as a mid-range WR2. The Bengals allow the second most fantasy points per game for the tight end. The Bengals have given up 227 yards to opposing tight ends over the last two weeks. They have also given up four touchdowns to the position. Dalton Schultz is coming off his best season game with 130 yards. He has a touchdown in four of the last five games. Without Collins on the field, Schultz could be in for close to ten targets and finish as the TE1. To keep it safe, his upside is a high-end TE1 in week ten.
The Bengals pass catchers have a tough matchup as the Texans allow the third fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The biggest reason they rank in the top three is that they have allowed only two receiving touchdowns on the season. There is some production in the yardage, allowing six receivers over 60 yards. JaMarr Chase has been limited all week with a back injury. Reports are that he will play on Sunday. I believe that Chase will be without any limitations. Chase should be a WR1 on Sunday. Part of that is that his partner, Tee Higgins, will miss this game due to a hamstring injury. In the one game that Higgins missed this year, Chase put up 190 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
With Higgins out on Sunday, Tyler Boyd or Trenton Irwin will get a bump. Boyd, for the most part, keeps his role when one of the two top receivers misses. He doesn’t usually see a spike in production when they are out. Boyd is still likely a WR4 in this matchup. He could be a decent flex option but doesn’t have an upside to his game. The last time Higgins missed, Trenton Irwin saw ten targets for 60 yards. It seems like Irwin does fill in that Higgins role. I don’t trust that he will see another ten-target outing this time. He is still outside my top 60 receivers. The Texans allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. They have allowed a touchdown in back-to-back games. They have allowed four tight ends over 60 yards. If the Bengals had a clear TE1, I’d consider them a sleeper, but they had three tight ends with four targets last week. You could say that Irv Smith is a borderline TE2, but it’s hard to trust in week ten.
New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ US Bank Stadium
- Weather – Indoors : )
- What Vegas is saying – Line (NO -3.0) & Over/Under 40.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two teams faced off was during the 2022 season. The Vikings would win a close one on the road, 28-25, over the Saints. The Saints are coming off a solid win over the Bears. The Vikings are coming off a crazy win in a shootout over the Falcons on the road. Both offenses must be on point, especially in the passing game. These teams have great run defenses that will be tough for both backfields. It will come down to who plays better: Derek Carr and “the goat” Joshua Dobbs in the passing game. I’d expect this one to end up being very close.
Derek Carr has been playing well for the last five weeks. He has thrown over two passing touchdowns in the previous two games. He has 300 passing yards in three of the last four games. The Vikings secondary has stepped up in the previous four weeks after being a layup matchup early in the season. They allowed three passing touchdowns during the last four weeks after giving up eight in the first five weeks. The Vikings give up some high passing yardage, with three of the previous five games over 260 yards. Derek has been a decent startable quarterback in most situations. This game looks like Carr would end up with 280 yards and one passing touchdown. Carr should be a solid, high-end QB2 in week ten.
Joshua Dobbs is the “Goat’! Coming into a game where he barely knew his teammates to go in and dominate in fantasy. Dobbs is already getting the week ten start against the Saints. Dobbs showed his toughness and found a way to produce in fantasy. In six of nine starts that Dobbs had this season, he has at least 40 rushing yards. He has four games over 25 fantasy points and now has a better surrounding team. The Saints, on paper, rank as a top-ten team against fantasy quarterbacks per game. They have given up two passing touchdowns in three games in the last four weeks. The Saints haven’t allowed a ton of yardage, with no single passer over 260 yards. They have allowed five opposing quarterbacks to rush for over 30 yards in a game. Joshua Dobbs doesn’t need many passing yards to succeed in fantasy. Dobbs should be a high-end QB2.
The Saints backfield has been wildly successful, but many players are involved with snaps and touches. Alvin Kamara has been on fire since returning, but his offensive snaps have decreased over the last three weeks. Jamaal Williams seems game-scripted but is seeing touches on the ground. Kendre Miller gets sprinkled in here and there. Of course, the biggest surprise and most productive has been Taysom Hill. He has 133 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the last three weeks. We’ll talk more about Hill later, but his presence has hurt this backfield, especially in the touchdown department. The Vikings are better run at defense than most folks think. They allowed just two running backs over 60 yards this season. The Vikings have been giving up a rushing touchdown in about every other game, and this would be one they don’t. They have let up the fourth-fewest receiving yards to running backs this season. In recent weeks, two running backs in the last three games have over 40 receiving yards.
Alvin Kamara’s decrease in snaps is concerning, but as long as he can continue to get 100 all-purpose yards in this game, then I’m not worried. This could be a game that is a little back and forth, so Kamara may see a bump in snaps for that reason. I still like Kamara as an RB1, as his upside is too good to pass on. Jamall Willaims isn’t seeing his touchdown upside like season and isn’t good enough to produce on minimal touches. He is a borderline RB4, as best. Kendre Miller is out for week ten.
For the Vikings backfield, it’s back to Alexander Mattison as a workhorse player. Cam Akers tore his Achilles and is out for the season again. Mattison still hasn’t been all that great this season, but opportunities can matter in fantasy. Mattison never lost much work, averaging 14 carries and three targets per game. The matchup with the Saints will be challenging as they rank in the top ten vs. fantasy running backs. Unless Mattison has an easy rushing matchup, the only way he gets over ten fantasy points per game is with his receiving touchdowns. Having a mobile quarterback can help the run game find better holes. Mattison is a high-end RB3 in week ten. Ty Chandler has resumed the backup job but is still outside my top 50 running backs.
For the Saints pass catchers, their matchup against the Vikings isn’t as easy as it used to be this season. In the first three weeks, the Vikings allowed five receiving touchdowns and five receivers over 60 yards. Since week four, the Vikings have allowed two receivers over 60 yards and two receiving touchdowns. The Vikings secondary has tightened up and is no longer an easy matchup. Again, if you look at who they have faced, all the opponents in the first three weeks are better than those in the last five weeks. Chris Olave had disappointed in fantasy after many believed this would be a breakout season for him. He has been over ten fantasy points twice in the last six weeks. Olave averages nine targets per game, but the production isn’t falling for him, especially with only one touchdown. He still has the upside that you need to start him in fantasy as a low-end WR1.
Michael Thomas has been consistent but failed to do anything in week nine. If you play Thomas, it is for the floor play in this matchup that can get you eight to nine points. He is a WR4. After his blow-up in Week 8, Rashid Shaheed returned to earth in week nine. He is a boom/bust receiver who had the opportunity to blow up, but his floor sucks. Like Thomas, Shaheed is a WR4 value; both receivers could be flexible options. For the tight end position, Taysom Hill is a TE1. You have to play Hill as long as he doesn’t have back-to-back bad games. Hill has 210 all-purpose yards and five total touchdowns in the last three games. The Vikings are a favorable matchup for the tight end, as they have allowed three tight ends to hit 50 yards in the previous three weeks. Juwan Johnson caught a touchdown in week nine but had low yardage. Johnson has low-end TE2 appeal, but Hill is shining in the offense.
The matchup with the Saints is difficult for the Vikings pass catchers. The Saints rank in the top ten vs. fantasy receivers. They have allowed eight receivers over 60 receiving yards. Justin Jefferson is not returning in week ten, so we’ll get another chance to see Jordan Addison as the WR1 for this team. Addison has done well with 285 yards and four touchdowns. Addison should remain in that seven-plus target range against the Saints. He is a solid mid-range WR2 in week ten.
KJ Osborn is in concussion protocol, but he was upgraded to limited practice, so he could potentially play in week ten. If he does play, he would only be a WR5, as I don’t think Dobbs can sustain three pass-catchers in the offense. If he misses a player like Brandon Powell or Thriston Jackson, he would see a jump in production but likely still be outside the top 60 receivers. TJ Hockenson has three straight games with double-digit fantasy points. The Saints aren’t the tough matchup they used to be. They have allowed four tight ends over 40 yards and have given up five receiving touchdowns. Hockenson should be good as a TE1 in week ten. Hockenson is questionable for Sunday but should play.
Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Acrisure Stadium
- Weather – Partly Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (PIT -3.5) & Over/Under 38.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Packers last played the Steelers during the 2021 season. They would win 27-17 over the Steelers in that game. The Packers broke a four-game losing streak to get a win over the Rams. The Steelers won a tough matchup at home last TNF. The Packers must get Jordan Love time to find his talented young receivers. The Steelers struggle in the air, so Love needs to be able to find his receivers. Aaron Jones’ rushing could help since the Steelers have a beatable run defense. The Steelers are coming into a tough matchup where they may need to get their run game going to win this game. This seems to be another game that will likely be low-scoring on Sunday.
Jordan Love has been under 20 fantasy points in five straight games. He isn’t keeping up with that efficiency we saw in the early part of the season. He has averaged one passing touchdown in the last six games in fantasy after having six touchdowns in the first two weeks. The Steelers are a top 10 unit vs. fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have allowed just two passing touchdowns in the last four weeks after allowing seven in the first four weeks. Every quarterback has gotten over 220 passing yards this season. Love has not been a trusted fantasy option, even with having nice young pass-catchers around him. It will be tough for Love on the road in a challenging environment. He should be a low-end QB2 in week ten.
Kenny Pickett has disappointed after an impressive preseason that we all loved. Note to self: preseason does not mean anything. Pickett has been under 15 fantasy points in five straight games. Pickett likely isn’t 100% with his injuries. The Packers allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Packers have allowed just one passer over one passing touchdown. They are also great at stopping passing yardage, allowing just three quarterbacks to throw for more than 220 passing yards. Pickett hasn’t proven anything in fantasy that you can trust him in a terrible matchup. Pickett should be outside the top 24 quarterbacks in week ten.
For the Packers’ backfield, we saw Aaron Jones get unleashed in week nine. He finished with 99 all-purpose yards in the game and scored. It would still be a close split backfield with AJ Dillion, who had nine carries for 40 yards. The Steelers are a favorable matchup for this backfield. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher in seven of eight games. They have given up 70 or more rushing yards to five different backs. We’ve seen partner backfields be able to do well against this Steelers’ poor run defense. It looks like Aaron Jones is back as the RB1 for this team. If that is the case, he should do well in fantasy. He will control most of the carries and be the primary pass catcher for the team. Jones should be ranked as a borderline RB1. For AJ Dillion, it’s been four weeks since he hit a season-high 13 fantasy points. He will likely average between eight to 12 carries most weeks with Jones back. He is a low-end RB3 due to the favorable matchup and has a chance to score on Sunday.
The Steelers backfield is in a similar two-back committee with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Both backs are coming off great games where they finished over ten fantasy points each. Harris ran well and was able to score a touchdown. Warren had three catches and ran for a team-high 88 rushing yards. The Packers run defense has been up and down this season. In four games, they have allowed a 60-yard rusher and, in the other half of games, have held opposing backs under 40 rushing yards. Najee Harris has been mediocre most of the season but has two of the last three games with 14 fantasy points. Based on how much they split this backfield, Harris is an RB3. Warren’s fantasy value is strictly how much work he gets, as it has been up and down. He is more of a RB3, but he is risky.
The Packers pass catchers have a fantastic matchup on Sunday vs. the Steelers. The Steelers allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed 11 receivers over 60 yards this year. The Steelers have done better at stopping receivers from scoring. After allowing six receiving touchdowns in the first four weeks, they have allowed one in the last four weeks. The matchup isn’t the problem, but more of the Packers’ offense. The Packers’ top three receivers all average about 5.5 targets per game. One of them seems to step up and shine every week, but it’s not consistent. Since their bye week, Christian Watson has dealt with injuries and isn’t producing in fantasy. Watson practiced in full, which is great news for him. He is a WR4 for me in this matchup.
The same can be said for Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Since their bye week, Doubs has been under 40 receiving yards and has scored touchdowns to make his fantasy day. Reed has had one solid game with four receptions for 83 yards. In the other two games, he was under 25 yards. They are both WR4, as they are risky flex play, but the upside is there. The Steelers allow the third-fewest fantasy points this year for the tight end position. The Steelers have allowed good tight ends to produce against them so that it could be good for Luke Musgrave. Musgrave is coming off his best game of the season with 12 fantasy points. He has not been that great for fantasy in the prior four games. It’s hard to trust Musgrave to produce in a tough matchup like the receivers. He is a TE2 in week ten.
The Steelers’ pass catchers have a tough matchup against the Packers’ secondary. The Packers rank in the top ten in stopping fantasy receivers. The Packers have given up less than a touchdown per game to receivers. They do allow some yards with three receivers over 80 yards. Diontae Johnson has reclaimed his throne as the top receiver in Pittsburgh. He has ten-plus fantasy points in all three games since his return. He has increased his weekly yardage and finally caught a touchdown in over a year. Johnson seems to have a strong connection with Pickett as he often looks towards Johnson. Johnson is a strong WR2 in fantasy.
George Pickens’ production has gone down each week with Johnson returning. His role has switched back to more of a deep threat, and with Pickett’s inability to connect with him that way, he has struggled. Pickens’ recent production and tough matchup have me concerned for him in this matchup. He is a borderline WR3 in week ten. The Packers rank inside the top ten against the tight end position. They have allowed two tight ends over 50 yards with two touchdowns. Connor Heyward has been filling in but is still outside the top 24 tight ends.
Tennessee Titans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Raymond James Stadium
- Weather – Mostly Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (TB -1.0) & Over/Under 39.5
Identifying the Game Script
It’s been four years since the Titans and the Bucs played each other. The Titans would win over the Bucs at home, 27-23. The Titans are coming off a tough loss last TNF to the Steelers. The Bucs would lose a heartbreak in the final moments to the Texans. I’m expecting this game to come down to the passing game. Both defenses are poor in the secondary and could turn into a shootout for fantasy. The run games could have a tough time. Both have been good against running backs. The Bucs don’t allow many rushing yards, and the Titans are great against pass-catching backs. In the end, whichever quarterback can produce will win this game.
Will Levis will be the starting quarterback in week ten, and Ryan Tannehill will be his backup. It was the right move for this organization. Levis returned to earth after dominating two weeks ago. On a short week against a good defense, the rookie was bound to struggle. Levis must adjust as more teams get filmed on the young quarterback. He has a great matchup in week ten as the Bucs give up the fourth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed 300 passing yards and at least two passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in three of the last four games. They allowed another rookie quarterback to have a career game against them in week nine. Unless the Bucs can pressure Levis, he is in for a good outing. I like Levis as a mid-range QB2, as I’m not ready to fully trust him, but this would be a good game to see if he can bounce back. He is a safer bet for Superflex leagues than in a 1QB league.
Baker Mayfield is coming off two solid games where he finished with 23 fantasy points. He has two passing touchdowns in back-to-back games. Mayfield has at least 230 passing yards in three straight games. The Titans’ secondary has been very good this season against quarterbacks. Since week four, they have allowed just three passing touchdowns. They have allowed not a single quarterback over 240 passing yards in that span. While they haven’t played any elite passing units, they still have been fantastic. I think the Bucs pass attack can be considered the most challenging opponent that the Titans have played in a month. If the Bucs’ secondary continues to be very bad, it may force Mayfield to throw the ball a lot, resulting in a solid fantasy outing. Mayfield should be a solid mid-range QB2 in week ten.
For the Titans backfield, it will be a tough matchup against the Bucs. The Bucs allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Only two running backs have produced over 60 rushing yards this season. They also are one of two teams that haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown yet. Derrick Henry has been running very solid the last three weeks with 14-plus fantasy points. His YPC has been over five yards in that span. With Levis at quarterback, Henry has seen four targets in back-to-back games. I’m going to continue to trust Derrick Henry to be Derrick Henry. He should see upwards of 18 touches in this game. It’s a tough matchup, but he is a borderline RB1. Tyjae Spears saw more snaps than Henry last week but continues to have minimal fantasy efforts. Spears will be involved in the offense, but with only one game over ten fantasy points, it’s hard to trust him. Spears is a mid-range RB4 in week ten.
Rachaad White has been on fire in fantasy for the Bucs’ backfield. In the last three weeks, White has been the RB3. White has 90 plus all-purpose yards over the previous three weeks. His receiving value has jumped in this offense. Unfortunately, the Titans haven’t allowed a pass-catching back over 35 yards and have allowed just two over two receptions. The Titans’ run defense has let up three 60-yard rushers in the last two games. They have given up a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games. White has control of this backfield by playing over 75% of the offensive snaps for most of this season. The Bucs have tried with KeShawn Vaughn, Sean Tucker, and Chase Edmonds, but White has the workload. He is a high-end RB2 in week ten.
For the Titans pass catchers, they have a fantastic matchup on Sunday. The Bucs allow the fourth most fantasy points per game. They have allowed five receivers over 70 yards in the last two weeks. They have allowed ten receiving touchdowns this year. In total, six receivers have eclipsed 100 receiving yards on the season. DeAndre Hopkins has seen better play recently, especially with Will Levis as the starting quarterback. He has 17 targets over the last two games. In a plus matchup, Hopkins is back as a WR2 in fantasy. He should continue to see WR1 targets within the offense to produce. Hopkins will be excellent for us in week ten.
Treylon Burks will miss this game after suffering an injury last week. Kyle Philips is coming off a strong game with 68 yards in week nine. Phillips has the talent to fill in as the WR2 for this team. Philips could have WR5 production, especially if his targets continue to rise. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine seems like this is a matchup that he will produce. He has always been inconsistent and random for fantasy. He is outside my top 60, but don’t be surprised if he crosses the endzone. For the tight end position, the Bucs are coming off games where they have allowed 60-plus yards and a touchdown to the last two opposing tight ends. If Chig Okonkwo were playing better, he would be a sleeper. He has been under six fantasy points all season. He is a low-end TE2 but has deep sleeper potential.
The Bucs pass catchers have a solid matchup against the Titans. The Titans have allowed a receiving touchdown in the last three games. They have allowed ten receivers to produce over 60 yards this season. They have been better than in the early part of the season, but they are still a weak secondary. The receivers only come down to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. None of the younger receivers have shown any consistency to be considered in starts and sits. Mike Evans has been the best receiver of the Bucs, with double-digit fantasy points in six of eight games this year. He has found the endzone a ton this season with five through eight games. Evans is a borderline WR1 in week ten. He should get his targets and have an excellent chance to score.
Chris Godwin has been okay this season but not great. He only has three games over ten fantasy points. In two of those games, when he did score over ten points, then Mike Evans didn’t. Godwin is a better flex play and a high-end WR3. The Titans allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. They have only allowed two tight ends over 40 yards and haven’t allowed a touchdown on the season. Cade Otton is coming off one of the best games of his career, with 70 yards and two touchdowns. Otton has been under nine fantasy points in all but one game. Otton is still a mid-range TE2 in week ten.
San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Everbank Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -3.0) & Over/Under 44.5
Identifying the Game Script
We have a prime matchup between the 49ers and the Jaguars. They last played in 2021, where the 49ers would win big, 30-10, over the Jaguars. The 49ers are coming off a much-needed bye week after losing three straight games. The Jaguars hope their bye didn’t cool down their five-game winning streak. The 49ers’ offense should do well against a poor Jaguars defense. The Jaguars can’t stop many from producing in the air. While they are good on the ground, pass-catching running backs thrive. On the Jaguars’ side, they need to attack that secondary, as that has been part of the reason for their losing streak. I’d expect it to be one of fantasy’s better games of the week.
Brock Purdy needed a bye week in the worst way. Purdy has been a liability as a starting quarterback during their losing streak. He has six turnovers in three of those games. He has thrown for only three passing touchdowns in that span, too. The good thing for Purdy is that the Jaguars are a bottom-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks. Before the week eight game vs. the Steelers, they allowed three straight games over 300 passing yards. They have allowed five of eight games over 300 yards. The passing touchdowns have been minimal in the last three games, with only three in total. With the 49ers offense, Purdy can bounce back in fantasy if he keeps the turnovers to a minimum. Purdy is going to be a high-end QB2 in my books.
Trevor Lawrence hopefully became an elite fantasy quarterback during his bye week. Lawrence has not surpassed 22 fantasy points in any game this season. He has just two games with two passing touchdowns. Part of the reason why he has only two games is because of the run game. Lawrence also only had three games over 250 passing yards. The 49ers are coming off two games where they allowed 280 passing yards and at least two passing touchdowns. Lawrence’s talent is too good to put him under the QB1 mark. The Jaguars will get the passing game going since the 49er’s run defense is so good. Lawrence is a low-end QB1 in week ten.
For the 49ers backfield, we all know that it’s Christian McCaffrey or nothing. CMC has been on a tear this season, with almost 1000 all-purpose yards and 13 touchdowns. He has played over 85% of the offensive snaps in five of the first eight games. He does have a tough rushing matchup against the Jaguars this week. They have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed just three running backs over 50 yards and two rushing touchdowns. That won’t matter, especially with the Jaguars weaknesses with pass-catching backs. They have allowed the most receptions with 60 and the fourth most receiving yards with 395 on the season. CMC is a cheat code, and he’ll be an RB1 without question.
We know Travis Etienne is having a breakout fantasy season for the Jaguars backfield. He was coming off four straight games with 20-plus fantasy points. He has averaged over 100 all-purpose yards and 22 touches per game. Etienne is coming into a tough matchup as the 49ers rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season. During their three-game losing streaks, the 49ers have given up an 80-yard rusher in two games. They have allowed six straight games with plus 20 receiving yards to a running back. Etienne plays at an elite level in fantasy and controls the whole backfield. Unless the Jaguars decide to get Tank Bigsby more involved off a bye week, Etienne should be an RB1 in week ten.
For the 49ers pass catchers, the Jaguars are a favorable matchup for them. The Jaguars have allowed nine receiving touchdowns this season. They have allowed seven receivers over 70 yards this year. It’s a good matchup for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Deebo Samuel looks to return in week ten after missing the last two games. Samuel hasn’t been all that good outside of games where Aiyuk didn’t play or left early. He has 165 all-purpose yards and zero touchdowns when Aiyuk plays a full game. Samuel has been up and down as a fantasy option this season. He needs to see some rushing work to make his fantasy strong. Coming off injury, Samuel is a high-end WR3/flex option in week ten.
Brandon Aiyuk should be in for a great game. Aiyuk has 100 yards in three of his seven games this year. He gets at least 50 yards in the games that he finishes. Aiyuk is averaging eight targets and 89 yards per game. I like Aiyuk as a borderline WR1 in week ten in a favorable matchup. For the tight-end position, the Jaguars also rank in the bottom ten. They have allowed a tight end of over 50 yards in three of the last five games. They haven’t given up a touchdown since week three. George Kittle is coming off an elite performance with 149 yards. When all three are on the field, Kittle will continue to be a boom/bust tight end in fantasy. He is a TE1, as you take the upside with the poor outings.
The Jaguars pass catchers have a solid match against the 49ers secondary. This year, the 49ers secondary is in the bottom ten against fantasy receivers. During their three-game losing streak, they have allowed a 100-yard receiver and given up five receiving touchdowns. During the bye week, the Jaguars needed to figure out how to use Calvin Ridley more for fantasy. He has eight-plus targets in three of the last four games. He produced 235 receiving yards but zero touchdowns. If Lawrence isn’t going to throw passing touchdowns, then it’s hard to trust Ridley to see big yardage to make his fantasy day alone. Ridley is a high-end WR3 in week ten.
Christian Kirk has been solid this season, with double-digit fantasy points in six of eight games. I’m confident that Kirk can perform and give us low-end WR2 numbers. The 49ers allow the second-fewest points per game for the tight end position. The 49ers have barely allowed a touchdown to the position and haven’t since week one. They have allowed just two tight ends over 30 yards. Evan Engram has been consistent for fantasy, with just one game under 40 yards. Engram’s target share is so significant that I trust him even in a tough matchup. He is a TE1 in week ten.
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ MT&T Stadium
- Weather – Partly Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BAL -6.5) & Over/Under 38.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Browns and the Ravens played each other about a month ago. The Ravens won in big fashion, 28-3, over the Browns. The Browns had to start their rookie quarterback in that game. The Browns are coming off a dominant win over the Cardinals. The Ravens destroyed another playoff-type team in Seattle 37-3. This could be a game of straight defense, as both defenses rank in the top 10 against every position in fantasy. For the Ravens’ skilled position, everyone outside Mark Andrews did poorly. Everyone in Cleveland did badly last time against the Ravens. Hopefully, having Watson can help that, but I’d expect a closer, low-scoring game between these two teams.
DeShaun Watson is coming off a pretty solid fantasy outing where he finished with 22 fantasy points. In three of the four games that Watson started and finished, he has over 20 fantasy points. He does have a tough matchup, as the Ravens allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. In nine games, two quarterbacks finished as QB1s with over 200 yards and two passing touchdowns. Outside of those two quarterbacks, the remaining seven have thrown for just two passing touchdowns. In one game last year, Watson threw for 160 yards and had one touchdown. Watson is still not 100%, so this will be a tough matchup for him regardless of his fantasy performance. Watson is a mid-range QB2, as he may see a small rushing floor, but I think his passing is dangerous in week ten.
Lamar Jackson has not been great since playing the Browns in week four. Since then, he has three of five games under 15 fantasy points. We know that Jackson has an unbelievable upside, but his play has not been great. The last time he did play the Browns, he had four total touchdowns and finished with 32 fantasy points on the road. This time, they are home, which could benefit Jackson greatly. The Browns allow the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They have been sloppy on defense lately, as we saw three of the last five games with quarterbacks throwing for at least two passing touchdowns. They have allowed 250 passing yards or more in two of the previous three. I trust that Jackson can find a way to bounce back at home with his ability to rush. He is a QB1 still in week ten.
For the Browns backfield, it has been a full-blown committee. Since their week five bye, Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have split the groundwork in the offense. Ford has 60 carries, and Hunt has 50. Hunt has taken over the potentially more valuable role in the red zone and goalline, where he has four straight games with a rushing touchdown. Ford handles third down and passing situations with 12 targets in the last four games. Pierre Strong is there sprinkling in on the offense. The Ravens are a top-ten run defense against running backs because they have allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season. They have allowed four rushers over 60 yards, but that is over nine games.
Last time, the Browns backfield couldn’t get much going on the offense, but they had a rookie quarterback leading the charge. Watons will play, which will help the run game out. Jerome Ford is a high-end RB3, as he should see targets in this game to enable him to move the ball. I don’t think his rushing output will be that efficient. Kareem Hunt is more of a low-end RB3 who may be a little touchdown-dependent in this game. His day could look bad if he doesn’t make it five straight games with a touchdown. Peirre Strong is outside the top 50 running backs.
For the Ravens Backfield, Gus “The Bus’ Edwards has been on a rampage in fantasy the last three weeks. He has over 17 fantasy points in three straight games with six rushing touchdowns. He did see two rushing touchdowns in week one but on five carries, which could be concerning, but they were blowing out Seattle early. Justice Hill has been okay as the backup, but not enough is going his way. The big shocker was Keaton Mitchell, who came out of nowhere with 138 rushing yards on nine carries. We could be seeing even more of a committee for this backfield. The Browns allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have eased up in the last few weeks. They have allowed 50 rushing yards to four different backs in the previous three games. The Browns only allowed one rusher over 50 yards in the first five weeks. They are also a team that has allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the season.
Edwards only ran for 48 yards last time he played the Browns, and his production has been a little touchdown-dependent in fantasy. I have Edwards as a borderline RB2 in a tough week. Justice Hill hasn’t been anything besides a low-end RB4 this season, and that is where he will be in week ten. Keaton Mitchell is tough because I’d usually say, let’s see him do it again, and I’ve said that about many rookies who perform, and they usually step up. In a desperate situation, Michell could provide considerable boom/bust potential in week ten as a low-end RB4.
The Brown’s pass catchers go up against the team that allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. Since week four, the Ravens have given up just two receiving touchdowns to the position. The Ravens have allowed five receivers over 80 yards and give decent yardage to their opponents overall. Amari Cooper is coming off his best game of the season with 22 fantasy points. Since their bye week, Cooper has three of four games over 80 yards. Cooper with Watson can be a starting asset even in a tough matchup. He must continue to see six-plus targets and be the team’s WR1. Cooper, in this matchup, is a low-end WR2.
Elijah Moore has disappointed in fantasy after being traded to the Browns. He doesn’t have a single game over ten fantasy points this year. He is, at best, a WR5 in this matchup. No one else is worth talking about like Cedric Tillman, as I need to see some production before considering him in the rankings. For the tight end position, the Ravens allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points. The reason is that they have allowed just one receiving touchdown, but they have given up 50 yards to two young tight ends in the last three weeks. David Njoku was the only one who did anything against them, finishing with 46 yards last time. Njoku has been doing well among the tight ends in the previous three weeks. Njoku should be in for a fine week as a high-end TE2.
For the Ravens pass catchers, the Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed four receivers over 80 yards this year. They are in the top three in the fewest receiving yards to receivers this year. The Browns’ secondary may be crumbling, especially in the last three weeks. During the span, they have allowed three receivers over 80 yards and four receiving touchdowns. Zay Flowers is coming off his worst season performance, with one catch for 11 yards. It could have been that the team was far ahead, and Jackson only threw 26 times. Flowers not seeing at least five targets is a concern. Flowers only had two games over ten fantasy points this season. I think his hype of being the WR1 on the team is projecting him high in fantasy. Flowers is a WR3 that is better in full PPR than anything.
Odell Beckham Jr. is coming off his best game as a Raven with 56 yards. Beckham has had almost 50 yards and seven targets in two of the last three games. If Beckham can keep up with the targets, he could engage in this matchup. He is, at best, a low-end WR4 that is a risky flex. The Browns allow the fewest fantasy points per game for the tight end. I’m not worried for Mark Andrews, as he put up 80 yards and two touchdowns the last time they played. Andrews is a TE1 in week ten.
Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 pm @ State Farm Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (ATL -2.0) & Over/Under 43.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Falcons and the Cardinals last played at the end of the 2022 season. The Falcons would win a close one, 20-19, over the Cardinals at home. They are coming off two embarrassing defensive losses to a rookie quarterback and a guy who joined his team 20 hours beforehand. The Cardinals are coming off another loss to the Browns. Help is coming as their franchise quarterback, Kyler Murray, is back in action. The Falcons will hopefully use their elite running back against one of the worst run defenses in football. Meanwhile, the Cardinals look to get their passing game going with Murray back at quarterback. This should be a close game in the desert.
Taylor Heinicke’s first game as the starter wasn’t too bad. He managed 260 yards with a touchdown. Hopefully, Heinicke will have Drake London back to help boost his value. The Cardinals are a bottom-ten team vs. fantasy quarterbacks on paper, but they don’t look as bad when looking at the numbers. They have allowed four of nine opposing quarterbacks with two-plus passing touchdowns. They allowed three quarterbacks over 250 passing yards. The Cardinals gave up a few rushing touchdowns early in the season, allowing them to have better fantasy outings. The Cardinals are still a tough defense that the average quarterback like Heinicke likely won’t beat down. Heinicke is a solid low-end QB2 that is good for Superflex leagues.
Kyler Murray is returning to the field after tearing his ACL a year ago. Last season, Murray averaged 21 fantasy points per game. He wasn’t having a great season, but it was not bad either. Murray gets a matchup against the Falcons, who don’t seem to be able to stop anyone in the passing game. They have allowed two-plus passing touchdowns in three of the last four games. They have allowed only one passer over 250 passing yards, but touchdowns are big. You can run on them, as we’ve seen them have two of the last three quarterbacks over 30 yards. I’m unsure what to expect from Murray on his first game back. He hasn’t played football in a year. The offense is weaker than the last time he was there. I’d ranked Murray as a high-end QB2. His rushing floor will help his value.
We continue to boycott Arthur Smith for the Falcons backfield for hating Bijan Robinson. Robinson played more than Tyler Allgeier, but Allgeier had one carry more for a touchdown. Robinson had 15 plus fantasy points in three of the season’s first four games. Since then, he has been under 13 fantasy points in the last five games. Those aren’t stats we complain much about, but the exception for Robinson was so great coming into the season. Averaging ten fantasy points in the last five weeks is a disappointment. Robinson has 37 fantasy points in the previous five, and Tyler Allgeier has 34 points. The good news is that the Cardinals allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in six of the last seven games. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns over the previous four weeks. This is a matchup that this backfield should do well.
Bijan Robinson is a high-end RB2 with upside. The matchup makes so much sense, but the script of this backfield has been a headache to understand. Robinson is a great player and could have a great day, but to be safe, he is considered more of an RB2 than a must-start RB1. Tyler Allgeier is a favorable match and does get bumped up since he has more carries in the last five weeks than Robinson. He is being used in the red zone, which makes that valuable for him. Allgeier is an RB3 in week ten. Don’t be shocked if Cordarrelle Patterson scored over both in this game.
For the Cardinals backfield, James Connor is returning after being on the IR for the last four weeks. He had almost 400 rushing yards in the first five games of the year. Connor will get Murray back, which will only help his overall value in fantasy. Connor is returning to a tough matchup as the Falcons rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They are one of two teams that haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season. In the last four weeks, they have allowed one of the opposing running backs to run over 50 yards. If Connor can get some production in the receiving game, they have allowed three receiving touchdowns to backs in the last four games. Connor should lead the backfield, but it’s hard to trust a player coming off an injury. Connor is a high-end RB3 in week ten. Emari Demercado hasn’t practiced this week, so he likely won’t be backing up Connor. Keaontay Ingram will likely back up Connor or start. Ingram would probably be a borderline RB4 at best.
The Falcons pass catchers will be getting Drake London back in week ten. London missed week nine, but he is in for a good matchup. The Cardinals rank in the bottom ten vs fantasy receivers. The Cardinals have allowed 100-yard receivers in three of the last four games. We haven’t seen London with Heinicke, but this could be a good connection. We will see on Sunday. I like London as a high-end WR3. I don’t see any other receiver on the Falcons worth considering inside the top 60 receivers. Khadarel Hodge filled in nicely with London out, but if London is back, his value will disappear.
For the tight end position, the Cardinals show as a tough matchup. They have kept all tight ends under 50 receiving yards. They have allowed two touchdowns to a tight end in the last three weeks. Kyle Pitts is playing more as a hybrid tight end receiver than inline as a traditional tight end. Pitts has been under eight fantasy points in the last three weeks. He is returning to more of that high-end TE2, which has an upside if he can show. Jonnu Smith is coming off a big game with 100 yards and a touchdown. Smith is playing more than Pitts in recent weeks, though there was a split in week nine. I like Smith as a streaming tight end who is a solid mid-range TE2. I think Smith gets enough of a target share that his upside is worth starting.
For the Cardinals pass catchers, they are getting their franchise quarterback back. The Falcons are a middle-of-the-road secondary this season. They allow low yardage but high touchdowns this season. They have allowed five receivers over 80 yards, so some can produce. The 11 receiving touchdowns scream upside for this receiving group. When he last played with Murray, Hollywood Brown was the WR1 in fantasy. Brown has been under ten fantasy points in three of the last four games. I think with Murray back at quarterback, Brown can get back to double digits. Brown should be a solid WR3/flex option in week ten.
Michael Wilson was able to practice in a limited fashion this week. If he plays, then he’ll be ranked as a WR5. No other receiver is trustworthy in the top 60, even with Murray returning. For the tight end position, the Falcons are very beatable. The Falcons have allowed six tight ends over 40 yards this season. Trey McBride blew up in week eight but struggled with Clayton Tune at quarterback. The return of Murray keeps McBride as a low-end TE1. I think Murray can bring out McBride’s upside that he offered us two weeks ago.
Detriot Lions vs Los Angeles Chargers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 pm @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -3.0 & Over/Under 48.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Lions and the Chargers faced each other was in 2019. The Lions would win a close one, 13-10, over the Chargers at home. The Lions are coming off a bye week, hoping to come out strong in the second half of the season. The Chargers won a dominating performance over the Jets, as their defense was stellar. The Lions must have their passing offense on full blast, as the Chargers secondary has allowed big games. The Chargers will have to attack in the passing game, as the Lions’ run defense has been very good. This could be a fun, high-scoring game on Sunday.
Jared Goff has been under 15 fantasy points over the last two games. Goff has been under 20 fantasy points in four of seven games. Goff hasn’t needed to do much since the Lion’s run game has been so strong. The Chargers allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed 232 passing yards or more to every quarterback. I like Goff to be able to put up very solid fantasy numbers in a potential shootout. Goff should be able to finish as a QB1 in this great matchup.
In week nine, Justin Herbert had a terrible game, finishing with five fantasy points. Herbert has been elite for most of the season, with six games over 20 fantasy points. He gets a matchup against the Lions, who have been hot and cold vs. fantasy quarterbacks. The Lions have allowed four opposing quarterbacks with two-plus passing touchdowns. The other four quarterbacks have been one touchdown or fewer for fantasy. Herbert should be able to bounce back in this game after this poor outing. In a potential shootout, Herbert should be a QB1.
The Lions backfield is getting even more firepower, with David Montgomery set to return in week ten. Montgomery missed the last two weeks with an injury. Before the injury, Montgomery was a beast with over ten fantasy points in four of five starts. Mongtomery success left rookie Jahmyr Gibbs almost useless for fantasy. In the two weeks Mongtomery has been out, Gibbs was over 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The Chargers have been solid against fantasy running backs this year. They have allowed just two running backs over 60 yards. They have allowed just one running back in the last four weeks to score a rushing touchdown. The Chargers struggle with the pass-catching running backs, as they have allowed six-plus receptions in six straight games. We have no idea how this backfield is going to be split. I’m putting these running backs as mid-range RB2s. Montgomery will take the early downs, while Gibbs is the pass catcher. I will rank Gibbs ahead of Montgomery based on Gibbs’ pass-catching value that he offers.
For the Chargers backfield, Austin Ekeler has finally got things going in fantasy with back-to-back games with 19-plus fantasy points. Ekeler’s production has come together with three touchdowns in the last two weeks. He is running at a 3.6 YPC with no game over 50 yards since his return. He has been under 40 yards in three of four games in the receiving game. The Lions are a tough matchup as they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game. They have not allowed a running back over 65 yards this season and two rushing touchdowns in the last six games. Besides an 80-yard run by Gus Edwards, the Lions have shut down the passing game for backfields. With a star player like Ekeler, you have to take the tough matchups and ignore them. He is still an RB1 in week ten.
The Lion’s pass catchers have a favorable matchup against the Chargers. They allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed five receivers over 80 yards. He has allowed nine receiving touchdowns this season. Amon St.Brown is an absolute beast in fantasy football this season. In this favorable matchup, he is a sure thing as a WR1. The next best receiver would have to be Josh Reynolds. While Reynolds has faded with Jameson Williams returning, he remains the most trusted one. Regarding recent production, he is a WR5 who could offer a floor play.
Jameson Williams hopefully got some much-needed wake-up call during the bye. The former first-rounder pick has done the minimum this season outside of a long touchdown grab. I’d probably have Williams right outside the top 60 receivers, but he needs to show something consistent before he enters lineups. Recently traded Dovonan Peoples-Jones will debut as a lion, but I’m not sure I’m expecting much. He could fill in for Williams, or they will split the deep-threat role. Either way, he will also be outside my top 60 receivers. The Chargers are ranked in the bottom ten against tight ends. They have allowed a tight end over 60 yards in three straight games. Sam LaPorta has proven he is already an elite fantasy tight end at a young age. He should be a TE1 in week ten.
For the Chargers pass catchers, they have a decent matchup. The Lions have shown they can be beaten in the air this season. They have allowed a 75-yard receiver in three of the last four games. Keenan Allen has been a solid receiver with seven of eight games over ten fantasy points. He has been receiving nine-plus targets every week. I expect this game to be a little higher scoring. Allen is a WR1 in my books. Quinton Johnston struggled against a tough Jets secondary, but the whole Chargers offense struggled, so I won’t hold that against him. He did have five receptions for 50 yards two weeks ago. I’m riding with that going into week ten. Johnston can be a solid low-end WR4 with a significant upside in fantasy.
For the Chargers tight ends, they have a fantastic matchup against the Lions. The Lions allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position. The Lions allow the tight end group to produce well over 40 receiving yards combined. That may not be great for individual tight ends. The upside is still there for a player like Gerald Everett. Everett has been very inconsistent this season. Everett is, at best, a high-end TE2.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 pm @ AT&T Stadium
- Weather – Indoors : )
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DAL -17) & Over/Under 38.5
Identifying the Game Script
We have the second divisional game of this weekend. The Giants and Cowboys are rematching their first game of the season. The Cowboys destroyed the Giants 40-0 in week one when they had their healthy roster. The Giants are coming off another loss as they continue to lose every piece on the offense. The Cowboys would lose a shootout against Philly in a high-scoring game. The Giants are in a bad spot with the loss of their top two quarterbacks and their top pass catcher, Darren Waller. The Giants’ offense couldn’t move the ball last time, so I don’t see much offensive success. The Cowboy’s defense dominated, so the offense didn’t have to do much. This would be a prime opportunity to get the run game against the Giants’ terrible run defense. This could be a one-sided game early between these two teams.
Tommy Devito will get the start in week ten against the Cowboys. Devito looked much better than he did filling in week eight. While he still threw two picks, he did manage to throw for 170 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, DeVito will go up against the Dallas Cowboys. They have allowed three of seven quarterbacks over 200 passing yards. The Cowboys have allowed two passing touchdowns in three of the last four games. Devito is an undrafted rookie with not a very good offense around him. The Cowboys dominated the Giant offense the previous time they played. DeVito will be outside the top 24 quarterbacks. There is a good chance that the team will switch to Matt Barkley during this game.
Dak Prescott, coming off the bye, had been red hot the last two weeks. He has over 300 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns. Before the Cowboys bye week, Prescott had only six passing touchdowns and didn’t get over 300 yards in six games. The last time Prescott played the Giants, he only had six fantasy points since he did not have to do much with the defense dominating. We could be in a similar situation since the Giants may have Tommy Devito as their starter. It’s tough to predict whether or not the Cowboys offense will need to do all that much. As a safe bet, Prescott is a low-end QB1 in week ten.
Saquon Barkley has been solid for the Giants backfield since his return in week five. He has four straight games with 10-plus fantasy points. Saquon is averaging 24 carries per game in the last four weeks. He has also averaged five targets per game. The matchup against the Cowboys will not be easy. They have allowed just two rushers over 60 yards this season. They have allowed a rushing touchdown in three of the last four games. The previous time Barkey played the Cowboys, he scored 7.8 fantasy points. The Giants offense has worsened by losing their franchise quarterback and star pass catcher from week one. The Cowboys will play up as Tommy DeVito is the starting quarterback. Barkley is a low-end RB1 at best. He will see as much work as he can handle in this game. He could see 25-plus touches.
For the Cowboys backfield, it has been all Tony Pollard. Pollard has another game under ten fantasy points. He is in four of five games with less than ten fantasy points. While he had his best game of the season against the Giants in week one, he is concerned. He has been under 60 rushing yards since week four. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since week one. Pollard has just one game over 40 receiving yards. It’s not all his fault, but his efficiency as a runner has been terrible. It is a big red flag in a matchup where Pollard may sit out the fourth quarter again. The Giants allow the third most rushing yards this season. Pollard is seeing over 70% of the touches in the offense when he is on the field, but he isn’t getting opportunities or producing with the opportunities he is given. Pollard is a low-end RB1, and I must trust him in his favorable matchup.
For the Giants pass catchers, it’s a terrible group. Six receivers have combined for three games with double-digit fantasy points in nine games. The Cowboys are a top-ten unit against fantasy receivers. Since week five, only two receivers have gone over 60 yards. They have allowed a touchdown in three straight games, and last time the Giants played the Cowboys, not a single receiver got over 30 receiving yards. If you had to try to play any of them, I still lean toward Darius Slayton or WanDale Robinson. They would both be considered low-end WR5s. The Cowboys have allowed a player over 50 yards in four of the last five games for the tight end position. That’s the Cowboys’ weakness in their secondary. Daniel Bellinger is the starter this time rather than Darren Waller. Bellinger did have three receptions for 40 yards last week. I think he has some sleeper appeal as a mid-range TE2.
For the Cowboys pass-catchers, it’s a difficult situation. The last time the Cowboys’ top three receivers played the Giants, they combined for 109 yards. Another side is that the Cowboys’ passing game has been elite the last few weeks. It’s tough to predict how this game will go. I think you need to start CeeDee Lamb no matter what. He is a WR1 in this matchup. Brandin Cooks could get some WR5 vibes, but it’s not trustworthy for fantasy. Michael Gallup seems to be losing snaps to Jalen Tolbert, who is coming off a solid game. Both are outside the top 60 in this game. For the tight end position, the Giants are in the top ten vs. the position. Jake Ferguson has been so good this year that he remains a TE1 and will have a better game this time.
Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 pm @ Lumen Field
- Weather – PM Showers
- What Vegas is saying – Line (SEA -6.0) & Over/Under 44.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Commanders played the Seahawks was during the 2021 season. The Commanders would win a close one, 17-15, at home over Seattle. The Commanders are coming off a nice win over the Patriots. Seattle would get a beat down by the Ravens, as the offense couldn’t get anything going. The Commanders must continue their success with their passing attacks, as this could be a shootout in week ten. The run game will need to step up since the Seattle run defense is inconsistent. The Seattle passing offense has been terrible this year, but this is a fantastic matchup against the Commanders’ terrible secondary. This may be a fun fantasy game that should have many starts in week ten.
Sam Howell has been a very good fantasy quarterback this season. He is QB6 on the season, with five of his nine games over 20 fantasy points. He comes off a little boom/bust but has been suitable for lineups. Seattle has improved as a secondary over the last month. In the first four games, the Seahawks gave up 300 passing yards in three of four games. They gave up five passing touchdowns in that time. They have allowed one quarterback to pass over 200 yards in the last four games. In that time, they have allowed four passing touchdowns. Howell will have to work to get his production. I like this game as a sneaky shootout based on how bad the Commanders’ secondary is. He is a QB1 in week ten.
Geno Smith has not been a reliable fantasy quarterback, being under 20 fantasy points in all but one game this year. The turnovers have killed him since their bye week, as he had six in the last four games. He only had one in the first four weeks of the season. Smith has a fantastic matchup in week ten. The Commanders allow the third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Before week nine, the Commanders allowed five straight games of over 270 passing yards and at least two touchdowns. This is a make-or-break game for Smith as a fantasy option. They should be able to get the passing game going in a shout-out matchup at home. This may be the one time I turn Smith into a QB1 this season. I don’t think he is as bad as Mac Jones is.
For the Commanders’ backfield, Brian Robinson has been as average as a fantasy running back can be. He has averaged about ten fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. His lowest game is six fantasy points, and his highest is 25. He finishes between the 9 to 11 fantasy points range for most parts. Antonio Gibson is also coming off his best game of the season. He has five receptions in back-to-back games. This matchup against the Seahawks is not bad at all. They have allowed just two running backs over 60 yards but have given four rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks. Robinson could have some scoring potential. He will get his work if this game doesn’t turn into a negative game script. Robinson should be a low-end RB2 in week ten. While Gibson sees passing work, he is still not producing enough to trust as a flex. He is a RB4 here.
For the Seahawks backfield, we could see a change in how this backfield is split. Rookie Zach Charbonnett has played more snaps than Ken Walker in the last two weeks. Part of that could be that Walker has been dealing with an injury. It shows that Walker is dealing with something, as he has had his lowest two fantasy outings in the last two weeks. He has been under ten carries in each of the previous two games. Unfortunately, Charbonnett isn’t doing much with his higher snaps. He still has fewer total yards than Walker in the last two games.
The Commanders are a middle-of-the-road team against fantasy running backs. They have allowed four running backs over 70 yards this season. They will enable some production in the receiving yards, with 40 yards in three of the last four games. It will come down to Walker’s health if he will produce. If he is going to be limited, then he isn’t trustworthy as an RB1 right now. Walker is, at best, a mid-range RB2 in this match. He should see at least ten carries and a few targets. Zach Charbonnet controls the third-down role but does not see enough passing volume to trust. He is a low-end RB3 with upside but doesn’t have much of a floor play.
For the Commanders’ pass catchers, this matchup isn’t that easy for them. In the first three weeks, the Seahawks gave up four 100-yard receivers and five touchdowns. Since week four, they have given up zero 100-yard games and three receiving touchdowns. The Commanders are a team that knows how to make the most of their passing game. Terry McLaurin has been solid and remains the team’s WR1 in targets. McLaurin is a safe, high-end WR2 in a matchup with high scoring possibility. Jahan Dotson has been on fire in fantasy for the last two weeks. Part of that is due to Curtis Samuel not being in the lineup. He has a chance to return in a week ten. Dotson has elite speed and needs to have the ball in his hands to produce. If Samuel misses, Dotson is a high-end WR3 – if he plays, Dotson drops to a low-end WR3.
If Curtis Samuel returns on Sunday, he will likely see a limited role in the offense. He is in the slot role, which is very valuable for the Commanders’ offense. He would be a WR5 and likely split with Jamison Crowder for a week. For the tight end position, Seattle has been pretty good against tight ends. In the last two weeks, Seattle has allowed a 60-yard tight end. Logan Thomas has been a solid tight end all season. Thomas is the definition of borderline TE1 this season.
The Seattle pass catchers have a fantastic matchup against the Commanders, who allow the third most fantasy points per game. The Commanders have allowed seven receivers to cross 100 receiving yards in a game. They have given up 13 receiving touchdowns this season. DK Metcalf has been solid this season with five of seven games with 50 yards. Metcalf is this team’s deep threat, and it could only take one play for him to go for 75 yards and a touchdown. Metcalf is a WR1 in this matchup. Tyler Lockett has been hot and cold all season, and based on his production pattern, this should be a good game for him. Lockett does have 80 yards in two of the last four games. In a potential shootout, Lockett is a low-end WR3.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has four straight good outings since Seattle’s bye week. He has 210 yards and two touchdowns over the last four games. If Seattle is ahead, they may not need JSN on the field as much. The rookie receiver is a solid WR4 with an upside to throw into your flex if you are desperate. For the tight end position, the Commanders have allowed five receiving touchdowns over the last five games. They have also allowed 30 yards or more in five straight games. Unfortunately, it’s hard to trust any of them in fantasy since none have done much this year. They are not in the top 24 despite a good matchup.
New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders
Details of the Script
- SNF – 8:20 pm @ Allegiant Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LV -1.0) & Over/Under 36.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Raiders and the Jets haven’t played each other since the 2020 season. The Raiders would win on the road 31-28 over the Jets. The Jets are coming off a bad loss to the Chargers on MNF. In the Raiders new coaching regime, they rose to the occasion by taking down the poor Giants. This game could be ugly for both sides as neither passing offense is good. The Jets and Raiders have very good secondary, so it won’t be a passing shootout. It will likely come down to the run games for both teams. The Jets need to feed Breece Hall against the Raiders’ poor run defense. The game on Sunday night will likely be low-scoring.
Zach Wilson continues to prove how much of a bust he was as a draft pick. He has just two games over 11 fantasy points this season. He has double the amount of turnovers as he does passing touchdowns. While his yardage has been decent the last two weeks, he has one passing touchdown with four turnovers. The Raiders are a top-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Since week four, they have allowed just one passer over 200 passing yards. The Raiders have allowed just four passing touchdowns and eight interceptions in the last six games. Zach Wilson hasn’t proven he can be trusted in a good matchup, let alone in a bad one. He is outside the top 24 quarterbacks.
Aidan O’Connell had a decent game last week. It was nothing to help with fantasy, but the Raiders had a plan to run the ball. I would assume that in an excellent running matchup, the game plan will be like that again. The Raiders will likely limit O’Connell from doing too much and play intelligent, non-risk football. The Jet’s defense has averaged only one passing touchdown per game. They have played some good fantasy quarterbacks and forced them to have season-lows against them. They have only allowed two quarterbacks to produce over 250 passing touchdowns. O’Connell will likely not lean on that much unless it is a blow, which won’t be at home. He is outside the top 24 quarterbacks in week ten.
For the Jets backfield, Breece Hall continues to be the lead guy on the team. He has been over 60% of the offensive snaps in the last two weeks. Hall has been over double-digit carries in six of eight games this year. He has seen at least four targets in three straight games. The Raiders allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running back this year. They have allowed four 70-yard rushers in the last three weeks. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher in seven of nine games. Since week five, the Raiders have given up six rushing touchdowns. Hall continues to see a more significant workload each week and has produced well for us in fantasy this year. He is an RB1 in week ten. This could be a game where Dalvin Cook seems more active and potentially ahead. He is still outside my top 50 running, as he has no trust factor. Michael Carter is also outside the top 50.
For the Raiders backfield, Josh Jacobs has dominated the carries with 20-plus carries in three of the last five games. Since week four, Jacobs has had a double-digit fantasy points in five of six games. The switch to the rookie quarterback has made Jacobs a focal point of the offense to see a ton of work. The Jets’ run defense is favorable for this backfield. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher in six of eight games this year. They don’t allow many rushing touchdowns but gave up two in week nine. The Jets’ run defense has for sure been up and down this year. Jacobs is a beast and will continue to see a significant workload in this matchup. He should be an RB1 in week ten. No one else in this backfield is making a noise to be considered.
For the Jets pass catchers, they are going on the road in a tough matchup. The Raiders rank in the top ten against receivers. Four receivers have gone over 80 yards against the Raiders this year. After allowing six receiving touchdowns in the first four weeks, they have allowed one in the last five weeks. It’s not like the Jets passing game is one for the Raiders to be scared about. Garrett Wilson continues to do his best even though the offense is terrible. He has 80 yards or more in three straight games. He has seen double-digit targets in the last two weeks. Wilson is a one-person show among the pass catchers. Wilson is a low-end WR1 in week ten.
The rest of the pass catchers are not doing enough to trust any given week. They are all outside the top 60. The Raiders have allowed four tight ends over 40 yards. They have only given up one touchdown to the position since week five. Tyler Conklin is coming off a 60-yard performance. He does have 50 yards in four of eight games. Conklin is a borderline TE2 in week ten.
For the Raiders pass catchers, they do have a difficult matchup against the Jets. They allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. The Jets haven’t given up a touchdown to a receiver since week one. They have allowed just four receivers over 50 yards this season. Of those four receivers, three of them finished over 100 yards. Davante Adams has been a significant concern in fantasy football. Adams has been under ten fantasy points in five straight games. He has 176 yards over five games and zero touchdowns. Adams has 26 targets over the last three games but has not been producing with him. Aidan O’Connell is struggling to get him the ball in the right situation. Adams is a low-end WR2.
Jakobi Meyers is the one who has produced double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. If you look at Meyer’s previous two weeks, he did well only because of a rushing touchdown in week nine. Meyers is, at best, a mid-range WR3 in week ten. For the tight end position, the Jets are ranked in the bottom ten vs. the position. They have only allowed three tight ends over 40 yards but have given up five receiving touchdowns to a tight end. Michael Mayer has not done much since his week seven blow-up game. He is a low-end TE2, hoping the matchup works for him.